Climate and energy

New report on the regional impacts of climate change, from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. For the .pdf summary of the impact on the American heartland (ie, us), download here.

I wish I could say it was a chilling read – but sadly, “chilling” is not a word that I have yet found in the report. It focuses specifically on climate change, heat waves, and heat-related illnesses. Summary: the Midwest will probably experience more intense heatwaves of longer duration, in part due to increased high pressure systems in the atmosphere stalling out over this region. Summer daytime and nighttime temperatures will increase.

Unless we adapt – by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and preparing our cities for large-scale emergency management interventions – heat-related deaths will increase as well. These will include heatstroke, as well as aggravation of cardiovascular and respiratory problems. The impact will fall hardest on those living in urban areas – babies and small children, disabled folks, the elderly (especially those living alone), and folks in lower socio-economic categories.

Take a moment. Absorb. Obviously some big-time social justice issues.

O.K. Taking a step back from the data, something that impressed me: Pew picking the Midwest as one of its four case regional studies. We’re pretty important – we provide a lot of food for the U.S. and a good chunk of the world – but we often are overlooked in regional studies of climate change.

At the moment, according to most (but not all) currently available information, it looks as if a large portion of the Midwest will still be capable of some sort of agriculture, at least if we are able to arrest climate change SOON.

However, what exactly those crops will be is less certain. Extreme weather (intense bouts of unseasonable precipitation, alternating with droughts, unseasonable temperature fluctutations, etc.) is hard on crops. Farmers may have to diversify from our major staples of corn, wheat, and soy, just to hedge their bets.

This shift will mess with markets, and it will mess with people – producers, processors, and consumers – on a global scale. That alone is an adaptation scenario well worth considering. Will industrialized agriculture find itself forced to shift toward more decentralized regional models, much as the energy industry is beginning to, with recent increases in renewables? Interesting question.

Wish list: more in-depth research on the impact of climate change on farming, ranching, and water supplies – for both eastern and western Kansas. Our geography and resources are pretty split between two major bioregions.

I do imagine that there is some good stuff out there, but (1) I haven’t found it yet, and/or (2) researchers are currently busting their rears to get the studies done. I should also mention that Pew also has a more general report out on ag, forestry, and carbon policy, a much older one (1999) on ag and climate change (a lot of new research has come out since then), and another on ag’s potential for mitiagating greenhouse gas emissions.