Research Summary: “Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kansas”
August 13, 2008
Summary: From the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) - the economic costs of climate change could run into the billions of dollars, based on case studies of eight states.
For Kansas, losses could exceed $1 billion - in large part due to the impact of warmer temperatures and reduced water supply on agriculture.
In the U.S., state decisionmakers are critical players in climate and energy policy. The costs of climate change will also fall heavily on state and local governments. Such costs are frequently left out of climate change discussions on the federal level.
Authors: National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL), a bipartisan organization working with the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland. Part of an eight state study. Research sponsored in part by the Environmental Defense Fund.
Title: “Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Kansas”
Original Publication Date: July 2008
File: For .pdf of executive summary, click here. For .pdf of full report, click here.
Title: “Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Kansas”
Original Publication Date: July 2008
File: For .pdf of executive summary, click here. For .pdf of full report, click here.
Major Findings:
- Kansas faces significant costs of inaction on climate change - over $1 billion total, and thousands of jobs.
- According to currently existing climate models, over the next thirty years Kansas faces a two to six degree Celsius rise in temperature
- Precipitation models show that eastern Kansas is growing wetter (10-20% wetter over the past century), and western Kansas is growing drier.
- Much of the national climate discussion focuses on the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and ignores the costs of NOT reducing them.
- The costs of dealing with climate change will fall heavily on state and local goverments, placing huge stresses on their budgets.
The economic results from these changes (all of the figures are in 2007 dollars):
WATER
Increasingly scarce water resources (and rising conflict over irrigation and water rights), increased damage from flooding, poorer water quality due to run-off of fertilizers, etc.
Increasingly scarce water resources (and rising conflict over irrigation and water rights), increased damage from flooding, poorer water quality due to run-off of fertilizers, etc.
- Flooding currently causes $33 million of damage in KS per year. Since 1900, half of the state’s major floods have occurred in the past 27 years. Economic damages have increased due to developments in flood plains.
- Dry land is susceptible to flash flooding. Western KS will become increasingly drier.
- By 2032 increased flooding could cost Kansas agriculture $150 million per year, with an additional $87 million per year in other economic sectors (such as manufacturing and transportation) and over 700 jobs per year.
AGRICULTURE
Crop losses due to extreme weather and invasive species, negative impact on health of livestock, descreasing crop yields for wheat, sorghum, and hay.
- Currently Kansas loses about $871 million per year due to invasive species, or 8% of total market value.
- By 2017, a one percent increase in the persistence of invasive species per year would cause $58 million in damages and a loss of over 400 jobs.
- High summer temperatures will shift crop production northwards, forcing farmers to change crops, irrigation patterns, and planting times.
- In western Kansas, drier growing seasons will require increased irrigation, further straining groundwater resources and increasing operations costs.
- Livestock production will be affected by higher temperatures as well. Increased carbon dioxide levels could improve rangeland productivity in the short term.
- In 2006 the total value of agricultural crops in KS was $3.3 billion. Wheat, sorghum, and hay was 70% of that total. For a nine degree Fahrenheit temperature rise and one percent precipitation decrease (possible for western KS by 2035 under current climate models), the total crop value would decrease by 11% or $290.4 million. Nearly 1,400 jobs would be lost.
HEALTH
Increasing air pollution and ozone leading to increased asthma and respiratory infections, increased disease vectors from insect and rodent populations.
- Direct and indirect costs of asthma treatment already costs Overland Park and Kansas City, KS over $13 million annually.
- Rising temperatures make many diseases more easily transmissible. The transmission season of Dengue fever could increase.
- Increased rainfall (such as is projected for northeastern KS) could lead to increased rodent populations, and disease vectors such as bubonic plague, hantavirus, and leptospirosis.
- No increased risk of malaria transmission was found, and warming may decrease some tick-carried diseases.
EXTREME WEATHER
Increase in the intensity of storms due to increased summer temperatures and a build-up of heat in the atmosphere, and increases in storm damage.
- Over the next ten years, if tornado damage increased by one percent per year, the loss to agriculture would be $2 million and to the building sector, $11 million.
- Hail already causes $46 million per year in property and crop damage in KS.
- The construction sector could benefit from rebuilding efforts, but then this limited work force is not available to build new infrastructure for economic growth.
- Storms also cause loss of life, damage to homes and businesses and infrastructure, costs (some which go beyond dollar values) and are not estimated here.
- The insurance sector will see losses, but will adjust those through raising rates. Paying higher rates will reduce homeowners’ disposable incomes.
TOURISM AND RECREATION
Climate change will alter wildlife populations and habitats. Tourist, birdwatching, and hunting and fishing will all be affected by these shifts.
- In 2001, KS fishing and hunting brought in $541 million.
Background:
GENERAL
- Economic impacts of climate change spread across resources and sectors, including water, energy, transportation, public health, and public service, with ripples effects on jobs, wages, and tax revenues - not all of these costs are accounted for in this particular study.
- There are also non-monetary costs not estimated here.
- There is no definitive cost of inaction - climate models are always changing and improving, and new economic models need to be developed to get a better understanding of all the impacts.
- Models are meant to help estimate, manage, and avoid risk. They are projections, not predictions.
- Costs of climate change will be unevenly distributed across the country.
- These costs also do not address the economic impact of sudden and abrupt climate change. Climate models estimate changes that are gradual over time.
- Negative climate impacts will outweigh the benefits for most sectors providing essential goods and services.
- The general impact of climate change on agriculture is still being studied, but it will likely be uncertain. There may be initial economic gains from altered growing conditions, but these will be lost as temperatures continue to rise.
- The effects will be felt regionally - droughts, water shortages, excess precipitation, pests and diseases.
- Electricity demand will probably increase in summer due to increased temperatures
- Electricity may become harder to deliver, due to extreme weather events taking out the grid
- Water supply networks may become compromised
Other related reports:
— Maril Hazlett, www.climateandenergy.org
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