Climate and energy

Available for download:

• CEP, Climate Change Hits Home - The Risks for Kansas (research summary)
• Feddema et al, What Climate Change Means for Kansas
• For individual .gif downloads of climate graphs, see below.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Over the next century, climate change poses significant risks for Kansas – and eastern and western Kansas will be affected in very different ways. This overview summarizes recent research conducted by University of Kansas scientists Drs. Nathaniel Brunsell and Johannes Feddema, and assistants Trish Jackson, Aubrey Jones, and Kelly Logan. Dr. Feddema is also an IPCC scientist.

The results - if carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as projected by the middle of the road IPCC AIB scenario, then by 2100:

HEAT. Temperatures in Kansas will rise in all seasons, in all parts of the state, by an average of 2-4°F. Southwest Kansas could see a rise as steep as 8°F.

• Higher summer temperatures will create more heat waves. The number of cooling degree days (the days that people run their air conditioning) will increase by about 50%. Higher summer nighttime temperatures will also stress livestock and crops.
• Freezing days will decrease during the winter. By 2060, winter temperatures will mostly stay above freezing. The number of heating degree days (the days that people run their heaters) will decrease by about 25%. The lack of hard freezes means that insects will thrive and diseases will increase among plants, animals, and humans.

STORM INTENSITY. The weather will become more variable.

• Yearly precipitation totals will stay about the same, but precipitation patterns will shift, becoming less predictable and less frequent, broken up by longer periods of dry weather.
• There will be fewer snow events. Individual rainstorms will become more intense when they occur, likely leading to more flooding.

WATER. Temperatures will rise and evaporation rates will increase, but yearly precipitation will not increase to meet the need for additional water.

• Western Kansas will become warmer and drier. Soil moisture will decrease, putting more pressure on irrigation. During the summer, water need (the measure of how much water plants must have to grow) will increase as much as eight inches.
• Eastern Kansas will become warmer and wetter. However, the higher temperatures will offset any increases in precipitation, due to the increase in evaporation rates. The result could actually be an overall drying effect. Less water will be available for rivers and reservoirs in winter, and plant stress will increase in summer.
• Drought patterns are already intensifying across the state. The greatest decrease in winter moisture is taking place in western Kansas. The greatest increase in spring moisture is occurring in eastern Kansas.

What climate change means for Kansas by 2100

• Increased temperatures
• Fewer frost days
• More heat waves
• Lower heating costs, higher air-conditioning costs
• More intense storm cycles – precipitation intensity increases, while frequency decreases
• Higher probability of flooding
• Less predictable precipitation cycles
• Higher evapotranspiration rates
• Decreases in soil moisture and annual moisture surplus
• The state will need more water, but less total moisture will be available

DOWNLOAD ALL THE GRAPHS
By downloading these graphs, you consent not to edit, alter, or change any of captions, titles, or other information.

• Figure One. GCM grid and GHCN sites for Kansas.
• Figure Two. Annual Average Temperature Projections for Kansas through 2100.
• Figure Three. Heating degree day and cooling degree day projections for Kansas through 2100.
• Figure Four. Growing degree day and potential evapotranspiration projections for Kansas through 2100.
• Figure Five. Precipitation Projections for Kansas through 2100.
• Figure Six. Annual moisture deficit, annual moisture surplus, and soil moisture trend projections for Kansas through 2100.
• Figure Seven. Increasing temperatures and variability in precipitation for Western, Central, and Eastern Kansas.
• Figure Eight. Kansas (Kaw) River Basin.

— Maril Hazlett, www.climateandenergy.org