Climate and energy

By Nancy Jackson

Last year, as a few of you may have heard, CEP conducted a poll. Kansans, we learned, didn’t entirely know what to make of climate change. In fact, our most frequently asked question (after “Why don’t we have net metering?”) is probably “But how will climate change affect Kansas?”

Those of us in the center of the country can hardly be blamed for a relative lack of concern. After all, what do melting ice sheets and panicked polar bears have to do with us?

We asked around and found that no one really knew. Kansas, as many of us well know, covers a major precipitation gradient: the west is very dry while the east is quite wet. Temperatures will surely rise but changes in precipitation are much tougher to predict.

Because the climate models are based on data from large grids, several of which cover small parts of Kansas (and probably because “only” about three million of us live here), no one had ever crunched Kansas-specific climate data before.

So we turned to the IPCC contributor in our back yard. Johannes Feddema, a climatologist at the University of Kansas, was eager to analyze the models. He worked with KU’s Nate Brunsell, an expert on interactions between land use and climate effects, and host of talented graduate students.

The KU team compared the climate models used by the IPCC to actual historical data. Several models correlated closely with what has actually happened in Kansas. Those were selected for further analysis.

Here is a brief sample of what the scientists found:

· Storms will be more intense and less seasonal, with long dry periods in between. That is, too much rain will increasingly come at the wrong time – bad news for crops and for people like me who live on a river.
· Kansas will suffer a “net negative water balance.” What does that mean? Even with more rain (and we could get less), hotter temperatures will mean more and faster evaporation and longer growing seasons will mean plants give up more water. The effect will be that 4-8 inches of extra water will be required to grow crops in Western Kansas, putting added stress on a declining Ogallala Aquifer.
· By 2100, Western Kansas, on average, will have no freezing days. That sounds great, until you consider that mosquitoes (and ticks, and chiggers, and poison ivy) won’t go away. And that heat waves will increase – the number of days we will run our air conditioners will go up by 50% and high nighttime temps will stress crops, livestock, and people alike.

Not fabulous news, taken together. But there is a bright silver lining. As the KU team was careful to point out, this scenario is not a prediction. It is a projection based on our behavior today. We could change our behavior and get a different result.

Will we? Will you?

We know what we can do individually:
· Today is the day we replace a few old-fashioned light bulbs with a couple more CFLs.
· Tomorrow, we call KCPL for that programmable thermostat that will keep us comfy and save us money by remembering to turn down the heat and the air-conditioning when we don’t need them. (Better yet, Midwest customers call to get an energy audit and finance the improvements on their bill!)
· The next day, we decide we don’t really need two refrigerators and a freezer in the garage – we can make it with just one Energy Star combo.
· Of course, yesterday we eliminated our “phantom load” by plugging everything with an always-on light (VCR, cell phone charger, flat screen TV) into a power strip that we turn off at night — right??

These little actions add up to huge energy savings. Our small decisions can quite literally change the world. Together, we can do even more!

Today, the Kansas Energy Council meets to discuss its goals for next year. Today, the Kansas Corporation Commission meets to discuss how it will treat Westar and Kansas Gas Service’s requests for accounting treatment of energy efficiency investments – and to provide an update on its consideration of generic energy efficiency Docket 441. In a few short months, our legislature convenes to make huge choices about our state budget, our kids education, our healthcare, our transportation system, and yes, our energy future.

These folks work for you. Let them know if you would like help to use less energy, if you would like to use more renewable energy. Let them know that together, we intend to defy the projections and bequeath a stronger, more secure Kansas to our children.

Kansas has led before. Our ancestors fought for the abolition of slavery – against predictions of a crippled world economy. They granted women the right to vote – against predictions of electoral havoc and irrelevance. Native son Dwight Eisenhower created the interstate highway system – which started right here in Kansas – to usher in a new era of prosperity.

Today, it is our turn. Dr. Feddema asked yesterday who should be the first to say “We don’t want to go down this path, we want to choose another.”

I choose another! I choose it as a mom, I choose it for my daughters. If you’re reading this, I bet you choose it, too. Let’s get to work, individually and together, to defy the projections and ensure prosperity in the Sunflower State for decades to come.

Download the summary – Climate Change Hits Home: The Risks to Kansas.